Election 2024: By the Numbers

Stop me if you've heard this one before–“You may care more about the outcome of the presidential election than your portfolio.”

As a rule, I avoid discussing politics, but I find it important to contribute some insights as we enter the home stretch of the election season. While much focus goes on the presidency, I remind people that what happens in the House of Representatives and Senate can have a more significant influence on the policy agenda in 2025 and beyond.

In the table below, you can see the gross domestic product (GDP) has fluctuated depending on who’s in the White House, but it has generally trended higher over the long term. The same can be said about inflation, as shown by the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index. It has fluctuated over time but has stayed in a range over the long term.

That does not minimize the challenges many have had with inflation in recent years. But it does help put today’s higher prices in perspective.

The U.S. economy is a massive (nearly $30 trillion GDP) and complex system influenced by a wide range of factors, including what happens “inside the Beltway.” History shows what happened, which can help you get a better idea about what might happen

GDP and inflation are just two measures that I examine. Some of my research also includes historical data on unemployment, interest rates, and the financial markets. From the highest level, the research tends to conclude the same thing: “It’s all about time in the market, not timing the market.”

Let me also say that I understand that elections can cause some anxiety as we enter the home stretch. Election years can be emotional, and tensions seem pretty high in 2024. If something is concerning you, please reach out ASAP. I’d welcome the chance to hear your concerns.

^{Schwab.com, September 30, 2024. “Party in the USA: Election Facts”}