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Weekly Update: Weak Jobs Report

Weekly Update: Weak Jobs Report

September 08, 2025
Weekly Market Update
September 8, 2025


Outlook

Friday's Employment Situation Report, aka the Jobs Report1, provided three pieces of worrisome news, 1) total jobs growth was weak for August, 2) unemployment is rising, and 3) last month's relatively weak report needed to be revised even lower. This should be enough for the Federal Reserve, which is charged with maintaining price stability (i.e. Inflation) and full employment, to lower the target overnight lending rate (aka the Fed Funds rate) this week. In fact, the derivative market has placed the highest probability of a 25-basis point cut with the second most likely outcome of a double rate cut (50 basis points) --- with the lowest probability of no cut at all.2

A cut does indeed make sense in our view since the current effective Fed Funds rate (4.3%) is significantly higher than inflation of 2.7%.3 In offering some balance to this argument, layoffs remain low and wages continue to grow at levels higher than inflation. That being said, we would be surprised to see an aggressive 50 basis point cut to Fed Funds rates this week - unless, perhaps, political influence plays a larger role than expected.

. . .

In the prior week, market sentiment was largely driven by a combination of weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data and a pivotal shift in monetary policy. August’s jobs report revealed a sharp slowdown in hiring, with only 22,000 new jobs added – significantly below the 75,000 jobs expected. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and the number of job openings fell below the number of unemployed for the first time since 2021.4 This marks a clear signal that the jobs market is cooling, prompting investors to reassess the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. These figures increased market confidence in a potential rate cut at the upcoming September FOMC meeting. 

Bond yields declined sharply, signaling a flight to safety and reinforcing expectations of easing monetary policy. Lower rates are typically supportive of consumer and business borrowing over time. The equity markets were volatile, ending the week at a respectable gain, while still hovering near all-time highs. 

Overall, the week reflected cautious optimism as investors balanced soft economic data with hopes for supportive Fed action, which could lead to continued resilience and strength in the U.S. economy. 

[1]https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

[2]https://www.atlantafed.org/cenfis/market-probability-tracker

[3]https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_inflation_rate

[4]Number of unemployed persons per job opening, seasonally adjusted

Upcoming Reports

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Wednesday: Producer Price Index (PPI)

Thursday: Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Friday: Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectations

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