Broker Check
Weekly Update: Stable Labor Market

Weekly Update: Stable Labor Market

March 10, 2025
Weekly Market Update
March 10, 2025
Outlook

Despite some caution on the part of investors over the potential short-term economic risks associated with tariffs, new immigration policies, and DOGE layoffs, we remain cautiously optimistic. Specifically, there has been a sharp rise in CEO confidence1, a pickup in industrial production2, and continued capital spending remains solid3. This backdrop, along with plenty of liquidity and easy conditions in the financial system4 provides us enough reason to look at market volatility as a short-term risk against a broader positive story.

. . .

The U.S. equity market slid further in the prior week, posting more than 3% losses (according to the S&P 500). Tariff uncertainties and mixed economic data sparked confusion among traders, leading the market to close out its worst week since early September 2024. The market has now given up much of the gains since election day in November last year.  

Alongside ongoing tariff communications, market participants are keeping a close eye on the state of the economy, specifically that of businesses and consumers.

As for the prior week, we received an update on the labor market and continued corporate earnings and guidance. The payrolls report showed weaker-than-expected job growth but overall stable results given efforts to promote efficiency in the federal government. 

Friday saw a rebound in the markets as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reassured investors that the U.S. economy remains to “be in a good place.” Powell acknowledged that the Trump administration is proposing policy changes to several areas, such as trade, taxes, government spending, and regulation. He noted that the “net effect” of those changes on the economy will assist in determining the Fed’s interest rate policies. 

In the meantime, Powell announced, “As we parse the incoming information, we are focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves. We do not need to be in a hurry and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.”5

While this helped calm the U.S. markets on Friday, it was not enough to propel them into green territory. For the week, the S&P 500 decreased by 3.1%, the Dow Jones slid by 1.6%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped by 3.5%. 

Employment Data - Nonfarm Payrolls. Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings

Key Statistics include:
Nonfarm Payrolls: 151K v. 159K est. (125K prev.)
Unemployment Rate: 4.1% v. 4.0% est. (4.0% prev.)
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): 0.3% v. 0.3% est. (0.4% prev.)
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): 4.0% v. 4.1% est. (3.9% prev.)

The nonfarm payrollsreport showed lower than expected job creation, while wage growth rose solidly, and the unemployment rate edged higher. 

Total payrolls rose by 151k for the month, better than the downwardly revised 125k added in January but lower than the 159k expected. 

The report comes amid efforts from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to stimulate cost-effectiveness and productivity in the federal government. Some of those efforts were proposed after the BLS collected data from this release’s survey, meaning some of its effects will not be included until the March report. In February, federal government employment decreased by 10k, while state and local governments increased payrolls by 11k.

Notable job growth was largely due to a surge in healthcare workers (+52k), financial activities (+21k), transportation and warehousing (+18k), and social assistance (+11k), while retail posted a decline of 6k workers.

Wages (average hourly earnings) grew 0.3% for the month as expected, though the annual increase of 4.0% came in just shy of the 4.1% expected. The unemployment rate also saw a rise from 4.0% to 4.1%.

Overall, the February figures show that the labor market is stable. The December jobs count was revised higher to 323k (+16k), while the January jobs count was revised lower by 18k. 

[1] https://www.conference-board.org/topics/CEO-Confidence

[2]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=389922&rn=529

[3]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=1076823

[4]https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1b47d9fa4061e27701199adfbc3b7886.png

[5]Watch live: Jerome Powell talks state of economy after Trump return

Upcoming Reports

Monday: Consumer Inflation Expectations

Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook

Wednesday: OPEC Monthly Report, Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Thursday: IEA Monthly Report, Producer Price Index (PPI), Fed's Balance Sheet

Friday: Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectations

Market Performance Stats

Aviance Capital Partners is a Naples, FL-based registered investment advisor providing professional wealth management,financial planning, and investment strategiessince 2009. Our financial advisors are fiduciaries, offering services such as retirement income planning, tax-efficient investing, and customized portfolio management, all designed to help clients achieve their long-term financial goals.

Whether you're preparing for retirement or seeking a tailored investment management strategy,Aviance’s wealth advisors in Naples and wealth advisors in Orlando provide financial planning and investment management services to investors in all of Florida and beyond.

Thank you for reading. If you have any questions or concerns, or would like to speak with a member of our team, please click the button below to reach out to us. We would love to hear from you!

Aviance Capital Partners
Aviance Capital Partners
fbintw
Disclosures: Aviance Capital Partners, LLC (“ACP”) is an SEC registered investment adviser located in Naples, Florida. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement by securities regulators and does not imply that ACP has attained a certain level of skill, training, or ability. While information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, ACP does not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. Not all services will be appropriate or necessary for all clients, and the potential value and benefit of the ACP’s services will vary based upon the client’s individual investment, financial, and tax circumstances. The effectiveness and potential success of a tax strategy, investment strategy, and financial plan depends on a variety of factors, including but not limited to the manner and timing of implementation, coordination with the client and the client’s other engaged professionals, and market conditions. This should not be construed as specific investment, financial planning or tax advice tailored to an individual reader. ACP suggests that readers consult a financial professional, attorney or tax advisory professional about their specific financial, legal or tax situation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss, and different investments and types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. There can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy, including those undertaken or recommended by ACP, will be profitable or equal any historical performance level. The index and sector performance data appearing or referenced above has been compiled by the respective copyright holders, trademark holders, or publication/distribution right owners. Historical performance results for investment indexes or sectors represented are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual portfolio performance. The indexes or sectors represented generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and custodial charges, or the deduction of an investment-management fee, which would decrease historical performance results. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. ACP makes no warranty, express or implied, for any decision taken by any party in reliance upon such index information.

The S&P 500 is the Standard & Poor’s index calculated on a total return basis. Widely regarded as the benchmark gauge of the U.S. equities market, this index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. Although the S&P 500 focuses on the large-cap segment of the market, with over 80% coverage of U.S. equities, it also serves as a proxy for the total market. The Dow Jones is a price-weighted market index that tracks 30 large, blue-chip companies. The NASDAQ is the second-largest stock and securities exchange and attracts more technology-focused or growth-oriented companies. The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap stock market index that makes up the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 1000 Index is a subset of the larger Russell 3000 Index and represents the 1,000 top companies by market capitalization. Bond Aggregate is represented by the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF.

All “expectations, forecasts, consensus, or estimates” are based on Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.

Additional information about ACP, including its Form ADV Part 2A describing its services, fees, and applicable conflicts of interest and its Form CRS is available upon request and athttps://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/146597. For current ACP clients, please advise us promptly in writing, if there are ever any changes in your financial situation or investment objectives, if you wish to impose any reasonable restrictions to our management of your account, or if you have not been receiving at least quarterly account statements from your account custodian.