Broker Check
Weekly Update: Resilient Spending

Weekly Update: Resilient Spending

October 06, 2025
Weekly Market Update
October 6, 2025


 
Outlook

Overall economic growth remains positive at 2.1% real GDP growth on a year-over-year basis -- somewhat below its 30-year average of 2.5%.1 While there is some concern about the negative impact of tariff and immigration policies, growth in the economy has some clearly strong points. Namely, spending on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure stands out. According to JP Morgan, "AI related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth and 90% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched in November 2022." In fact, construction spending on data centers, used to power AI, is set to exceed spending on office buildings in the U.S. by 2026.2 While this is a positive factor in helping to maintain overall economic growth, it will be worth keeping an eye on AI spending if businesses begin taking on too much debt to fund these and related projects.

. . .

The U.S. government shut down on October 1, after lawmakers failed to reach a budget agreement. The shutdown disrupted the release of important economic data, including the September jobs report, leaving the Federal Reserve and market participants without several important indicators. Private sector data partly filled the gap. The ADP employment report showed an unexpected loss of 32,000 private-sector jobs in September,3 raising concerns about potential softness in the labor market.


Consumer spending in the U.S. has remained relatively resilient despite the government shutdown. In the second quarter of 2025, consumer spending rose at a 2.5% annualized pace.4 This growth was supported by steady wage increases and rising disposable incomes, which have allowed consumers to continue purchasing goods and services. This growth contributed heavily to the upward revision of GDP growth to 3.8%.5


Financial markets have maintained strong momentum in recent days, with the S&P 500 climbing above 6,700 points, resulting in new record highs. Gains were supported in part by healthcare stocks, while other sectors contributed more modestly.6 Consumer confidence, as measured in late September, dipped slightly. However, expectations for future income improved.7 These indicators suggest that households may still be prepared to spend, though broader concerns about fiscal policy and economic conditions could weigh on sentiment in the coming months. 

[1] https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6d0f561042f48cb65ccffdcaed76a052.png

[2]https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-flying-under-the-radar-but-could-yield-risk-off-moves-in-popular-tech-stocks-says-bank-of-america-9bd33529

[3]With Friday's jobs report in question, ADP shows private payrolls fell by 32,000 in September - CBS News

[4]US economy expanded at a surprising 3.8% pace in significant upgrade of second quarter growth | AP News

[5] US Economy Expanded at a Surprising 3.8% Pace in Significant Upgrade of Second Quarter Growth

[6] Stock market news for Oct. 1, 2025

[7] Surveys of Consumers

Upcoming Reports

Monday: N/A

Tuesday: Consumer Inflation Expectations, Consumer Credit

Wednesday: 10-Year Note Auction, FOMC Meeting Minutes, Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims, Fed Chair Powell Speaks, 30-Year Bond Auction

Friday: Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings (MoM), Nonfarm Payrolls

Market Performance Stats

Aviance Capital Partnersis a Naples, FL-based registered investment advisor with advisors in Naples and Orlando. We provide professional wealth management,financial planning, and investment strategiessince 2009. Our financial advisors are fiduciaries, offering services such as retirement income planning, tax-efficient investing, and customized portfolio management, all designed to help clients achieve their long-term financial goals.

Whether you're preparing for retirement or seeking a tailored investment management strategy,Aviance’s wealth advisorsin Naples and wealth advisors in Orlando provide financial planning and investment management services to investors in all of Florida and beyond.

Thank you for reading. If you have any questions or concerns, or would like to speak with a member of our team, please click the button below to reach out to us. We would love to hear from you!

Aviance Capital Partners
Aviance Capital Partners
fbintw
Disclosures: Aviance Capital Partners, LLC (“ACP”) is an SEC registered investment adviser located in Naples, Florida. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement by securities regulators and does not imply that ACP has attained a certain level of skill, training, or ability. While information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, ACP does not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. Not all services will be appropriate or necessary for all clients, and the potential value and benefit of the ACP’s services will vary based upon the client’s individual investment, financial, and tax circumstances. The effectiveness and potential success of a tax strategy, investment strategy, and financial plan depends on a variety of factors, including but not limited to the manner and timing of implementation, coordination with the client and the client’s other engaged professionals, and market conditions. This should not be construed as specific investment, financial planning or tax advice tailored to an individual reader. ACP suggests that readers consult a financial professional, attorney or tax advisory professional about their specific financial, legal or tax situation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss, and different investments and types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. There can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy, including those undertaken or recommended by ACP, will be profitable or equal any historical performance level. The index and sector performance data appearing or referenced above has been compiled by the respective copyright holders, trademark holders, or publication/distribution right owners. Historical performance results for investment indexes or sectors represented are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual portfolio performance. The indexes or sectors represented generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and custodial charges, or the deduction of an investment-management fee, which would decrease historical performance results. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. ACP makes no warranty, express or implied, for any decision taken by any party in reliance upon such index information.

The S&P 500 is the Standard & Poor’s index calculated on a total return basis. Widely regarded as the benchmark gauge of the U.S. equities market, this index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. Although the S&P 500 focuses on the large-cap segment of the market, with over 80% coverage of U.S. equities, it also serves as a proxy for the total market. The Dow Jones is a price-weighted market index that tracks 30 large, blue-chip companies. The NASDAQ is the second-largest stock and securities exchange and attracts more technology-focused or growth-oriented companies. The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap stock market index that makes up the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 1000 Index is a subset of the larger Russell 3000 Index and represents the 1,000 top companies by market capitalization. Bond Aggregate is represented by the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF.

All “expectations, forecasts, consensus, or estimates” are based on Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.

Additional information about ACP, including its Form ADV Part 2A describing its services, fees, and applicable conflicts of interest and its Form CRS is available upon request and at https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/146597. For current ACP clients, please advise us promptly in writing, if there are ever any changes in your financial situation or investment objectives, if you wish to impose any reasonable restrictions to our management of your account, or if you have not been receiving at least quarterly account statements from your account custodian.

This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm.