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Weekly Update: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's Speech at Jackson Hole

Weekly Update: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's Speech at Jackson Hole

August 25, 2025



Weekly Market Update
August 25, 2025
Outlook

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium hinted at potential interest rate cuts beginning in September, citing rising risks in the labor market.1 The speech made a big impression on investors of small-cap stocks, which soared 3.9% as measured by the Russell 2000 Index2 - far outpacing the large-cap S&P 5003, which turned in an impressive 1.5%. When investors have concerns that the economy may be slowing down, they often favor larger companies with more predictable earnings. Friday's speech seems to have demonstrated that investors are more worried about a growth slowdown than inflation, given that rate cuts are broadly seen as boosting growth at the risk of letting inflation increase.  

. . .

May Warrant Interest Rate Adjustments 

Jerome Powell’s keynote address on Friday at the Kansas City Fed’s annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming1 was widely watched, as many investors have been looking to Powell for an indication of the direction in which monetary policy will go in the coming months, specifically commentary regarding a September interest rate cut. 

Powell said the stability of the unemployment rate allows the Fed “to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance.” He indicated the current policy rate is in modestly restrictive territory. Nonetheless, changes in the base outlook or shifts in the balance of risks between its dual mandate may warrant an adjustment in the policy stance. 

Powell reiterated the labor market remains in good shape and the economy has been resilient, but risks are approaching, which could result in downward pressure on employment and upward pressure on inflation. 

Powell noted that fiscal changes in tax and trade policies have begun to push up prices in some categories of inflation; however, the effects are now clearly visible. He suggested there is a reasonable base case that tariff impacts are “relatively short-lived” and cause a “one-time shift in the price level” that would not support strict policy (higher interest rates). Powell said the possible effects of tariffs on prices could be uncertain and will be assessed and managed.

As for the labor market, Powell noted the slowdown in job growth was larger than previously believed, highlighting the recent substantial downward revisions. Powell also acknowledged that due to changes in immigration policies and a lower labor market participation rate, the break-even rate, which is necessary to maintain a stable unemployment rate, has been reduced. 

Powell’s comments were largely dovish, indicating current conditions may warrant a policy adjustment as the Fed shifts its focus to the weakening labor market. Following the speech, the market implied odds of a September interest rate cut measured at 91.3%, indicating a cut is the most likely outcome.4

[1] Watch Fed Chair Powell's full policy speech at Jackson Hole

[2] Russell 2000 - Live Performance & Historical Returns

[3] S&P 500 - Live Performance & Historical Returns

[4] FedWatch - CME Group

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