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Weekly Update: Positive Data

Weekly Update: Positive Data

December 09, 2025
Weekly Market Update
December 8, 2025

Outlook

We remain cautiously optimistic on the stock market, given a variety of data that, in our view, remains positive. Most notably, estimates for real-time economic growth remain positive as provided by the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank (Weekly Economic Index+2.3%) and the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank (GDPNow+3.5%). Industry survey data provided by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows that while manufacturers are generally experiencing a mild decline in economic activity, the significantly larger services sector remains in growth mode.1

While we see these as high-level statistics, we are also paying attention to employment-related data, which, depending on who you ask, is currently providing mixed signals. In our view, employment remains robust, given the latest official unemployment rate2 and relatively low claims for unemployment3 since the latest unemployment release.

. . .

The U.S. equity markets started December on a positive note, with all three major indices modestly higher for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500, and tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.9%, respectively. Overall, year-to-date, the broad benchmark (S&P 500) is up roughly 17%, while the Nasdaq is up a solid 22%.4

Markets were influenced by a handful of corporate earnings releases, M&A activity, and a few updates on economic data, specifically on the labor market and inflation. The labor market data showed an unexpected fall in U.S. private payrolls (reported by ADP)5, although followed by better-than-expected initial jobless claims6 and job cut readings7.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE reading, came in lower than expected. The delayed September data showed the key inflation measure dropped to its lowest level since May. The core figure, which excludes volatile categories of food and energy, rose 0.2% for the month and 2.8% from a year ago.8 Overall, the report showed prices remained reasonably stable despite tariffs, which will likely give the Fed room to cut rates again in December.

A separate report released on Friday, the University of Michigan’s consumer survey, showed consumer sentiment came in better than expected. The survey’s measure rose 4.5% from November’s reading to 53.3, better than the 52 forecast. The preliminary release also showed inflation expectations dropped, with the one-year outlook lowering to 4.1% (from 4.5%), and the three-year outlook to 3.2%.9 Both inflation forecasts showed the lowest levels since January.

As for the current week, investors will turn their attention to the central bank meeting this week. We will not only receive an interest rate announcement and press conference on Wednesday, but also an updated set of economic projections, along with the Fed’s “dot plot”, which shows the best estimate for where the committee sees interest rates heading over the next few years.

Market consensus points to another 25bps (0.25%) cut at the December meeting, which will move the key target rate (the fed funds rate) closer to a neutral level of around 3.0% - 3.5% in the year ahead.10 It is important to note that the Fed’s reasoning for lowering rates is not because the economy is in imminent danger or a recession, but rather to return the policy rate to a more neutral state - supportive of growth and a healthier labor market. The economy and consumers appear to be in solid shape.

[1] https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/

[2] https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm

[3] https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/wkclaims/report.asp

[4] DJI, SPX, IXIC Chart

[5] ADP® Employment Report

[6] Home | U.S. Department of Labor

[7] Challenger Report: 71,321 Job Cuts on Restructurings, Closings, Economy | Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. | Outplacement & Career Transitioning Services

[8] Personal Income and Outlays, September 2025 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

[9] Surveys of Consumers

[10] FedWatch - CME Group

Upcoming Reports

Monday: Consumer Inflation Expectations (Nov)

Tuesday: ADP Employment Change Weekly, JOLTS Job Openings

Wednesday: FOMC Meeting - Statement, Economic Projections, Interest Rate Decision, Press Conference

Thursday: Fed Governor Krosxner Speaks

Friday: N/A

Market Performance Stats

Aviance Capital Partnersis a Naples, FL-based registered investment advisor with advisors in Naples and Orlando. We provide professional wealth management,financial planning, and investment strategiessince 2009. Our financial advisors are fiduciaries, offering services such as retirement income planning, tax-efficient investing, and customized portfolio management, all designed to help clients achieve their long-term financial goals.

Whether you're preparing for retirement or seeking a tailored investment management strategy,Aviance’s wealth advisorsin Naples and wealth advisors in Orlando provide financial planning and investment management services to investors in all of Florida and beyond.

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Disclosures: Aviance Capital Partners, LLC (“ACP”) is an SEC registered investment adviser located in Naples, Florida. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement by securities regulators and does not imply that ACP has attained a certain level of skill, training, or ability. While information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, ACP does not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. Not all services will be appropriate or necessary for all clients, and the potential value and benefit of the ACP’s services will vary based upon the client’s individual investment, financial, and tax circumstances. The effectiveness and potential success of a tax strategy, investment strategy, and financial plan depends on a variety of factors, including but not limited to the manner and timing of implementation, coordination with the client and the client’s other engaged professionals, and market conditions. This should not be construed as specific investment, financial planning or tax advice tailored to an individual reader. ACP suggests that readers consult a financial professional, attorney or tax advisory professional about their specific financial, legal or tax situation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss, and different investments and types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. There can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy, including those undertaken or recommended by ACP, will be profitable or equal any historical performance level. The index and sector performance data appearing or referenced above has been compiled by the respective copyright holders, trademark holders, or publication/distribution right owners. Historical performance results for investment indexes or sectors represented are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual portfolio performance. The indexes or sectors represented generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and custodial charges, or the deduction of an investment-management fee, which would decrease historical performance results. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. ACP makes no warranty, express or implied, for any decision taken by any party in reliance upon such index information.

The S&P 500 is the Standard & Poor’s index calculated on a total return basis. Widely regarded as the benchmark gauge of the U.S. equities market, this index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. Although the S&P 500 focuses on the large-cap segment of the market, with over 80% coverage of U.S. equities, it also serves as a proxy for the total market. The Dow Jones is a price-weighted market index that tracks 30 large, blue-chip companies. The NASDAQ is the second-largest stock and securities exchange and attracts more technology-focused or growth-oriented companies. The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap stock market index that makes up the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 1000 Index is a subset of the larger Russell 3000 Index and represents the 1,000 top companies by market capitalization. Bond Aggregate is represented by the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF.

All “expectations, forecasts, consensus, or estimates” are based on Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.

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