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Weekly Update: Job Creation Moderates While Unemployment Improves Leading to Mixed Results

Weekly Update: Job Creation Moderates While Unemployment Improves Leading to Mixed Results

February 10, 2025

Weekly Market Update
February 10, 2025
Outlook

When the portion of the workforce that is working part-time for "economic reasons" is rising, it is typically not a good thing. This is because when times are good, those particular part-time workers would more likely be relaxing than working. This information, along with other employment data, is tracked by a survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This portion of the workforce has indeed been rising since the end of 2022.1 Historically, a consistent rise in this statistic often precedes a recession. Fortunately, it began to decline in the last quarter of 2024. This is consistent with the timing of the improving Small Business Optimism Index, contributing to our perspective that the remainder of 2025 appears to be in good shape from an economic and corporate earnings perspective.2

. . .

The U.S. equity market slid into red territory to finish the week. Markets were impacted by tariff moves imposed by President Donald Trump, continued releases of fourth quarter earnings, and economic data on the labor market. 

Tariffs dominated the headlines in the beginning of the week as a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico went into effect, shortly after both regions showed a willingness to cooperate which led to a delay on the implementation of the tariffs. Mexico received a 30-day pause on tariffs as they placed troops at the border to stop the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. in exchange for the U.S. trying to stop the flow of weapons into Mexico. Additional tariff news occurred with Trump on Friday announcing reciprocal tariffs on any country that places tariffs on American goods.  

Turning to the economic calendar, the labor market was in view this week with the nonfarm payrolls report showing moderating job growth but an unexpected downward move in the unemployment rate. 

For the week, the S&P 500 lowered by -0.2%, the Dow Jones slid by -0.5%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped by -0.5%. 

Employment Update – Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings

Key Statistics include:
Nonfarm Payrolls: 143K v. 169K est. (307K prev.)
Unemployment Rate: 4.0% v. 4.1% est. (4.1% prev.)
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): 0.5% v. 0.3% est. (0.3% prev.)
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): 4.1% v. 3.8% est. (4.1% prev.)

Data released earlier in the week on the labor market included the JOLTs Job Openings which showed better than expected job openings in January, totaling 7.744M versus the 7.510M forecast. The ADP Private Employment data also came in higher than expected, showing 183K new jobs added to the economy versus the 148K forecast. 

Friday’s release of the U.S. nonfarm monthly jobs report was perhaps the most highly anticipated as it is closely followed by the Federal Reserve, given that full employment is one of their dual mandates (price stability is the other). 

The nonfarm payrolls report showed lower than expected job creation, while wage growth rose sharply, and the unemployment rate edged down. 

Total payrolls rose by 143K for the month, less than the 169K expected and down from the upwardly revised 307K added in December (revised higher by 51K). November also saw an upward revision which changed the total jobs added to 261K, up 49K.  

Notable job growth in December was largely due to a surge in healthcare workers (+44k), retail (+34k), social assistance (+22k), and government (+32k). Job loss was centralized in related mining industries, such as quarrying and oil and gas extraction (-8k). 

On a brighter note, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.0%, one-tenth of a point below the previous reading and forecast of 4.1%. The unemployment rate moved lower after accounting for changes to the population controls, which caused a slight rise in the labor force participation rate (or the level of working-age people who are employed or actively seeking work). The labor force participate rate rose to 62.6%, up 0.1% from the previous month. 

A broader measure that includes discouraged workers or those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons remained steady at 7.5%.

While job creation was subdued, wage growth climbed more than expected. Average hourly wages recorded a rise of 0.5% for the month and 4.1% year-over-year, both measures came in largely above the forecasts of 0.3% and 3.8%, respectively. 

The market’s reaction to the report caused little change to performance. The lower-than-expected January payrolls number was essentially offset by the upward revision to the two prior months’ readings, paired with a downtick to unemployment and strong wage growth is not cause for major concern, in our opinion. The market is pricing in a strong belief that the Fed will likely hold rates steady at the current restrictive level for quite some time, making it rather unlikely for a resurgence in inflation.

As for the upcoming week, all eyes will turn to the incoming inflation data, specifically to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports.4

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1Dxha&height=490

[2] https://www.nfib.com/news-article/monthly_report/sbet/

[3] Trump says he will announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries next week | Reuters

[4] Economic Calendar - Bloomberg - Bloomberg Markets

Upcoming Reports

Monday: Consumer Inflation Expectations

Tuesday: Fed Chair Powell Testifies, FOMC Members Bowman and Williams speak

Wednesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Thursday: Producer Price Index (PPI)

Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production

Market Performance Stats

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