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Weekly Update: Existing Contradiction

Weekly Update: Existing Contradiction

December 29, 2025



 




Weekly Market Update
December 29, 2025
Outlook

Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the preliminary Gross Domestic Product, which showed a rather strong reading of +4.3% for the 3rd quarter (an annualized number based on the prior 3 months).1 Driven by consumer spending, this is a solid number and is better than at any time over the past 2 years. Despite this reading, consumer sentiment2, as measured by the University of Michigan, sits at a noticeably low reading. In fact, low levels like the current reading of 52.9 are typically reached when the economy is well into a recession. Decent economic growth driven by consumer spending stands in sharp contrast to very low levels of consumer sentiment. While this could be argued to be a contradiction, it could also indicate that consumer sentiment is likely soon to rebound to normal levels - especially in an environment where the Fed is erring on the side of caution.

. . .

The U.S. equity markets posted solid gains in the holiday-shortened trading week. In the prior week, the S&P 500 rose +1.4%, the blue-chip Dow Jones added +1.2%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed +1.4%.

The most notable highlight was the delayed release of theU.S. Q3 GDP report. The Commerce Department’s report showed the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. during July through September rose 4.3% on an annualized basis. This far exceeded the prior quarter's reading of 3.8% (the annualized rate from April through June) and economists' expectations of 3.2%.

Economic growth was supported by consumer spending, which grew 3.5% in the third quarter after expanding 2.5% in the second quarter. Exports and government spending also increased, further boosting growth.

The report showed real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased by 3.0%, indicating continued consumer demand.

The report largely reflects a positive view on the economy, displaying strong economic growth (demand and spending) despite inflation pressures.

[1]  https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2025-initial-estimate-and-corporate-profits

[2]  https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c3975b66b521430656c51a5bf7e1f8c1.png


Upcoming Reports

Monday: Pending Home Sales

Tuesday: Chicago PMI, FOMC Meeting Minutes

Wednesday: Continued and Initial Jobless Claims

Thursday: Holiday - New Year's Day

Friday: Manufacturing PMI, Fed's Balance Sheet

Market Performance Stats

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