Broker Check

2180 Immokalee Road, Suite 301, Naples, FL 34110

(239) 598-4747
[email protected]
Book a Meeting
Weekly Update: China & Earnings

Weekly Update: China & Earnings

October 13, 2025





 


Weekly Market Update
October 13, 2025
Outlook

Friday's sell off was the result of a threat to raise tariffs on Chinese goods by an additional 100%, which was in retaliation for China's new global trade restrictions on rare earth materials. Tariffs of this magnitude scare stock market investors as the consequences would likely be a slowdown in economic growth, inflation, and job losses. Presidents Trump and Xi are set to meet at the end of October, but we expect fits of trade-related volatility until some sort of agreement is reached - either before, during, or after the meeting.

Aside from that, the U.S. economic growth story is still intact with some job softening, but not yet enough for serious concern. Consumers and businesses have decent balance sheets. Some evidence (or confirmation) will be provided in the next few days as many major banks provide details on how consumer and business health has impacted earnings.

. . .

The U.S. equity markets closed the week on a rough note after a sell-off on Friday. As mentioned in the outlook, the sharp decline was driven by a resurgence of trade war concerns.

President Trump took to Truth Social on Friday morning, writing that China was “becoming very hostile” with the rest of the world regarding the supply of rare earth metals, accusing China of withholding these crucial resources. China produces roughly 90% of the world's rare-earth minerals, according to the Wall Street Journal. Such materials are crucial for various technological applications, such as semiconductors, electric vehicles, aircraft engines, and military equipment. In the post, Trump indicated, “one of the policies that we are calculating at this moment is a massive increase of tariffs on Chinese products coming into the United States of America.”1

The social media post was created in response to China increasing export controls for five new rare earth metals, expanding the total to 12 of the 17 rare earth elements. The controls require foreign companies to obtain special licenses to export such rare earths, and uses for military or advanced semiconductor applications would be denied.

President Trump dialed back his rhetoric on Sunday in an attempt to ease tensions. Trump wrote on Truth Social, not to worry about China and that “it will all be fine.” In the meantime, the Defense Department is increasing its efforts to stockpile $1 billion worth of critical minerals.2

There is reason to believe this conflict will be resolved. U.S. tariffs on China (which are currently suspended) are not set to take effect until Nov. 10. President Trump and Xi will likely attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit on Oct 31. Face-to-face communication will likely continue trade talks and expedite the conclusion of a deal.3

While the tensions of Friday caused investors to de-risk across the board, it is important to note the S&P 500 benchmark was positive going into Friday and even closed at another all-time high on Wednesday.4 Market participants have largely brushed off the continued government shutdown and lack of updated economic data. As for global trade tensions, many of the stiff tariff threats announced in April were later significantly reduced through negotiation and exemptions, which led to a robust comeback that set new highs for the market.

As for this sell-off, the S&P 500 dropped to its lowest level in a month. The benchmark remains up over 11% year-to-date, with remarkable AI trade momentum and solid economic growth supported by resilient consumers.

[1] Trump post costs stocks $2 trillion in single day

[2] Pentagon steps up stockpiling of critical minerals with $1bn buying spree

[3] Wall Street thinks Trump will be forced to make a deal for China’s rare earth minerals

[4] S&P 500 Chart

Upcoming Reports

Monday: OPEC Monthly Report

Tuesday: Fed Chair Powell Speaks 

Wednesday: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Beige Book

Thursday: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, PPI, Retail Sales

Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls - Average Hourly Earnings, Participation Rate, Unemployment Rate

Market Performance Stats

Aviance Capital Partnersis a Naples, FL-based registered investment advisor with advisors in Naples and Orlando. We provide professional wealth management,financial planning, and investment strategiessince 2009. Our financial advisors are fiduciaries, offering services such as retirement income planning, tax-efficient investing, and customized portfolio management, all designed to help clients achieve their long-term financial goals.

Whether you're preparing for retirement or seeking a tailored investment management strategy,Aviance’s wealth advisorsin Naples and wealth advisors in Orlando provide financial planning and investment management services to investors in all of Florida and beyond.

Thank you for reading. If you have any questions or concerns, or would like to speak with a member of our team, please click the button below to reach out to us. We would love to hear from you!

Aviance Capital Partners
Aviance Capital Partners
fbintw
Disclosures: Aviance Capital Partners, LLC (“ACP”) is an SEC registered investment adviser located in Naples, Florida. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement by securities regulators and does not imply that ACP has attained a certain level of skill, training, or ability. While information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, ACP does not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. Not all services will be appropriate or necessary for all clients, and the potential value and benefit of the ACP’s services will vary based upon the client’s individual investment, financial, and tax circumstances. The effectiveness and potential success of a tax strategy, investment strategy, and financial plan depends on a variety of factors, including but not limited to the manner and timing of implementation, coordination with the client and the client’s other engaged professionals, and market conditions. This should not be construed as specific investment, financial planning or tax advice tailored to an individual reader. ACP suggests that readers consult a financial professional, attorney or tax advisory professional about their specific financial, legal or tax situation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss, and different investments and types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. There can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy, including those undertaken or recommended by ACP, will be profitable or equal any historical performance level. The index and sector performance data appearing or referenced above has been compiled by the respective copyright holders, trademark holders, or publication/distribution right owners. Historical performance results for investment indexes or sectors represented are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual portfolio performance. The indexes or sectors represented generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and custodial charges, or the deduction of an investment-management fee, which would decrease historical performance results. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. ACP makes no warranty, express or implied, for any decision taken by any party in reliance upon such index information.

The S&P 500 is the Standard & Poor’s index calculated on a total return basis. Widely regarded as the benchmark gauge of the U.S. equities market, this index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. Although the S&P 500 focuses on the large-cap segment of the market, with over 80% coverage of U.S. equities, it also serves as a proxy for the total market. The Dow Jones is a price-weighted market index that tracks 30 large, blue-chip companies. The NASDAQ is the second-largest stock and securities exchange and attracts more technology-focused or growth-oriented companies. The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap stock market index that makes up the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 1000 Index is a subset of the larger Russell 3000 Index and represents the 1,000 top companies by market capitalization. Bond Aggregate is represented by the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF.

All “expectations, forecasts, consensus, or estimates” are based on Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.

Additional information about ACP, including its Form ADV Part 2A describing its services, fees, and applicable conflicts of interest and its Form CRS is available upon request and at https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/146597. For current ACP clients, please advise us promptly in writing, if there are ever any changes in your financial situation or investment objectives, if you wish to impose any reasonable restrictions to our management of your account, or if you have not been receiving at least quarterly account statements from your account custodian.

This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm.