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Weekly Update: Bank Earnings & Loan Losses

Weekly Update: Bank Earnings & Loan Losses

October 21, 2025






 


Weekly Market Update
October 21, 2025
Outlook

Earnings season kicked off last week with banks providing positive news overall on the state of the consumer and businesses. However, loan losses from non-depository financial institutions (NDFI) were highlighted by JPMorgan Chase's CEO, Jamie Dimon, as a warning sign for commercial lending - two skips and a hop from the corporate bond market. In the meantime, many banks lowered the reserves they set aside for potential losses, providing a signal that defaults remain low overall.

Either way, we remain positive on the prospects for continued economic growth and expect earnings to generally be supportive of stocks.

. . .

The S&P 500 endured some challenges this week, including ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, an ongoing government shutdown, and emerging credit quality concerns of small regional banks. Nonetheless, the three major averages posted solid gains for this week, with the S&P 500 up 2.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.4%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 3.6%.

Last Friday marked the 17th day of the government shutdown, meaning investors missed out on key economic data, including the September retail sales report, which provides insight into the health of consumers. Fortunately, the Chicago Fed’s advanced retail sales summary was released in the prior week and showed encouraging results. The CARTS report indicates retail sales excluding autos likely increased 0.5% month-over-month in September, or 0.2% after adjusting for inflation.

Additionally, updated data from the Atlanta Fed GDP-Now trader points to real GDP growth of 3.9% in the third quarter, well above the long-term trends of 1.5 – 2.0%.

Despite, tit-for-tat trade policies, fiscal uncertainty and slowing employment growth, recent data suggest the consumer remained resilient in the third quarter further supporting strong economic growth. Other favorable factors such as the Federal Reserve cutting rates and positive corporate earnings growth proposes a positive outlook heading into 2026.

Upcoming Reports

Monday: N/A

Tuesday: Fed Waller Speaks, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

Wednesday: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks 

Thursday: Initial and Continued Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales

Friday: CPI (and Core), Manufacturing and Services PMI

Market Performance Stats

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