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Weekly Update: Bad News and Good Outcomes

Weekly Update: Bad News and Good Outcomes

September 15, 2025





Weekly Market Update
September 15, 2025
Outlook

There seems to be an increasing number of tragic events unfolding on the global stage, and last week was certainly no exception. When taking headline events into consideration for the sake of assessing investment risks, it is tempting to draw dire conclusions. However, connecting the dots between bad news (everything from tragic events to politics to global geopolitical events) and the broad category of investment markets or the stock market is not (nor has ever been) easy. The stock market is up over 12% so far in 2025, which seems ironic given the rather large presence of bad news this year.

Some investment banks have recently increased their outlooks for the remainder of 2025 based on strong earnings.1 However, markets could decline with a slowdown in AI-related spending or "sell the news" once the Fed finally does lower its interest rate target. We remain constructive on stocks given continued growth and financial stability in the economy. Either way, what seems to be driving market returns this year is more related to business and economic factors and less on bad news (not related to business/economics).  

. . .

U.S. equities closed the week with solid gains, as the S&P 500 posted its best five-day advance in over a month.2 Markets were boosted by softer jobs figures and mixed inflation data that further reinforced expectations for the central bank to cut the key federal funds interest rate at the upcoming meeting this week.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its quarterly census of employment and wages (QCEW). The report showed the labor market created fewer jobs than previously thought. The release reflected a downward revision of 911,000 fewer jobs added in the 12-month period through March 2025, significantly weaker than forecasted. The annual revision indicates the initial payroll reports overestimated job gains, meaning job growth has been slower than previously believed.

The report comes after two months of weak payroll data showing less than expected job gains and downward revisions to prior months. The labor market has shown signs of cooling conditions as the demand for hiring has slowed, although the unemployment rate appears to remain steady at 4.3%, well below the historical average of 5.7%.3 Further evidence suggests that tighter immigration enforcement and an aging workforce have resulted in the labor force participation rate, which measures the percentage of the civilian population that is either employed or actively looking for work, to drift lower (62.3%).4 This means fewer jobs are needed to balance the labor market and could support a lower unemployment rate.

Following the labor market data, markets received highly anticipated updates on inflation that showed mixed results. The August producer price index (PPI)unexpectedly dropped on a month-over-month basis for the core and headline measures, decreasing by -0.1% for both measures. Meanwhile, the August consumer price index (CPI)came roughly in line with expectations. The headline figure came in slightly hotter, rising 0.4% month-over-month, while the annualized reading held steady at 2.9%. Taken as a whole, it appears inflation remains elevated, above the Fed’s long-term target of 2.0%, but is contained.

Despite inflation running slightly high, the central bank appears well-positioned to resume easing (lowering interest rates) to provide support to the labor market (the maximum-employment portion of their dual mandate). Markets are pricing in more than a 96% chance of a 25 bps cut at this week's policy meeting, followed by two additional 25 bps cuts at the October and December meetings.5 The Fed will also provide updates to the “dot-plot” quarterly economic projections on the fed funds rate, unemployment, inflation, and economic growth.

[1] Two Big Banks Just Raised Their S&P 500 Targets. Here’s Why.

[2] S&P 500 - Live Performance & Historical Returns

[3] Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey News Release - 2025 M07 Results

[4] Employment Situation Summary - 2025 M08 Results

[5] FedWatch - CME Group

Upcoming Reports

Monday: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

Tuesday: Retail Sales, Atlanta Fed GDPNow

Wednesday: Building Permits, Housing Starts, FOMC Meeting - Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Statement and Projections, FOMC Press Conference

Thursday: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial and Continued Jobless Claims

Friday: N/A

Market Performance Stats

Aviance Capital Partnersis a Naples, FL-based registered investment advisor with advisors in Naples and Orlando. We provide professional wealth management,financial planning, and investment strategiessince 2009. Our financial advisors are fiduciaries, offering services such as retirement income planning, tax-efficient investing, and customized portfolio management, all designed to help clients achieve their long-term financial goals.

Whether you're preparing for retirement or seeking a tailored investment management strategy,Aviance’s wealth advisorsin Naples and wealth advisors in Orlando provide financial planning and investment management services to investors in all of Florida and beyond.

Thank you for reading. If you have any questions or concerns, or would like to speak with a member of our team, please click the button below to reach out to us. We would love to hear from you!

Aviance Capital Partners
Aviance Capital Partners
fbintw
Disclosures: Aviance Capital Partners, LLC (“ACP”) is an SEC registered investment adviser located in Naples, Florida. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement by securities regulators and does not imply that ACP has attained a certain level of skill, training, or ability. While information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, ACP does not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. Not all services will be appropriate or necessary for all clients, and the potential value and benefit of the ACP’s services will vary based upon the client’s individual investment, financial, and tax circumstances. The effectiveness and potential success of a tax strategy, investment strategy, and financial plan depends on a variety of factors, including but not limited to the manner and timing of implementation, coordination with the client and the client’s other engaged professionals, and market conditions. This should not be construed as specific investment, financial planning or tax advice tailored to an individual reader. ACP suggests that readers consult a financial professional, attorney or tax advisory professional about their specific financial, legal or tax situation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss, and different investments and types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. There can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy, including those undertaken or recommended by ACP, will be profitable or equal any historical performance level. The index and sector performance data appearing or referenced above has been compiled by the respective copyright holders, trademark holders, or publication/distribution right owners. Historical performance results for investment indexes or sectors represented are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual portfolio performance. The indexes or sectors represented generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and custodial charges, or the deduction of an investment-management fee, which would decrease historical performance results. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. ACP makes no warranty, express or implied, for any decision taken by any party in reliance upon such index information.

The S&P 500 is the Standard & Poor’s index calculated on a total return basis. Widely regarded as the benchmark gauge of the U.S. equities market, this index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. Although the S&P 500 focuses on the large-cap segment of the market, with over 80% coverage of U.S. equities, it also serves as a proxy for the total market. The Dow Jones is a price-weighted market index that tracks 30 large, blue-chip companies. The NASDAQ is the second-largest stock and securities exchange and attracts more technology-focused or growth-oriented companies. The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap stock market index that makes up the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 1000 Index is a subset of the larger Russell 3000 Index and represents the 1,000 top companies by market capitalization. Bond Aggregate is represented by the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF.

All “expectations, forecasts, consensus, or estimates” are based on Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.

Additional information about ACP, including its Form ADV Part 2A describing its services, fees, and applicable conflicts of interest and its Form CRS is available upon request and at https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/146597. For current ACP clients, please advise us promptly in writing, if there are ever any changes in your financial situation or investment objectives, if you wish to impose any reasonable restrictions to our management of your account, or if you have not been receiving at least quarterly account statements from your account custodian.

This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm.






Weekly Market Update
September 15, 2025
Outlook

   

. . .

The U.S. equity markets notched a small loss for the week, after posting record highs intra-week for the S&P 500. The slight pullback was driven by a decline in semiconductor stocks after disappointing guidance, although partially offset by favorable economic data. For the week, the S&P 500 dipped -0.1%, while the blue-chip Dow Jones and tech-heavy Nasdaq fell -0.2%. 

The week was filled with updates from key readings on growth and inflation. The second estimate of U.S. Q2 gross domestic product (GDP)showed an upward revision to the annual growth rate of 3.3% from 3.0%. Q2 growth showed exceptional strength and resilience in the economy, driven by continued consumer spending and a turnaround in trade balance.

The revised increase in real GDP is largely due to an increase in investment and consumer spending, partially offset by a decline in government spending and an increase in imports. The real GDP reading showed consumer spending rose 1.4%, better than the 0.5% seen in the prior period. While imports, which are subtracted in the GDP calculation, declined by 30.3%, reversing the 37.9% surge seen in Q1.3

Meanwhile, later in the week, thepersonal consumption expenditures (PCE), commonly referred to as the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, was released, indicating that pricing pressure is retreating, but some tariff impacts may be working their way through the economy. 

The PCE price index showed the annual inflation rate held steady at 2.6% and the monthly rate increased by 0.2%, both in line with expectations. Whereas, the core rate, which the Fed considers to be a better indicator of longer-run trends as it excludes the volatile categories of food and energy, increased to a 2.9% seasonally adjusted annual rate. Marking a 0.1% increase from the June level and the highest rate since February, although in line with forecasts.4

The central bank targets an annual inflation rate of 2.0%, so this report shows prices are running a bit higher than that. Nonetheless, markets are still expecting the Fed to resume lowering its benchmark interest rate (the federal funds rate) at the upcoming September meeting, particularly after inflation came in line with expectations.5

However, the nonfarm payrolls report coming out this Friday, September 5th, will have a large impact on policymakers’ decision for interest rates, as much of the focus has shifted from rising inflation to potential emerging weaknesses in the labor market. 

[1] https://ycharts.com/companies/SPY

[2] https://ycharts.com/companies/ACWX

[3] https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-08/gdp2q25-2nd.pdf 

[4] https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-july-2025

[5] FedWatch - CME Group

Upcoming Reports

Monday: Holiday - Labor Day

Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing PMI

Wednesday: JOLTS Job Openings, Beige Book, FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

Thursday: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) PMI, Initial and Continued Jobless Claims, FOMC Member Williams Speaks 

Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls - Average Hourly Earnings, Participation Rate, Unemployment Rate

Market Performance Stats

Aviance Capital Partnersis a Naples, FL-based registered investment advisor with advisors in Naples and Orlando. We provide professional wealth management,financial planning, and investment strategiessince 2009. Our financial advisors are fiduciaries, offering services such as retirement income planning, tax-efficient investing, and customized portfolio management, all designed to help clients achieve their long-term financial goals.

Whether you're preparing for retirement or seeking a tailored investment management strategy,Aviance’s wealth advisorsin Naples and wealth advisors in Orlando provide financial planning and investment management services to investors in all of Florida and beyond.

Thank you for reading. If you have any questions or concerns, or would like to speak with a member of our team, please click the button below to reach out to us. We would love to hear from you!

Aviance Capital Partners
Aviance Capital Partners
fbintw
Disclosures: Aviance Capital Partners, LLC (“ACP”) is an SEC registered investment adviser located in Naples, Florida. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement by securities regulators and does not imply that ACP has attained a certain level of skill, training, or ability. While information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, ACP does not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. Not all services will be appropriate or necessary for all clients, and the potential value and benefit of the ACP’s services will vary based upon the client’s individual investment, financial, and tax circumstances. The effectiveness and potential success of a tax strategy, investment strategy, and financial plan depends on a variety of factors, including but not limited to the manner and timing of implementation, coordination with the client and the client’s other engaged professionals, and market conditions. This should not be construed as specific investment, financial planning or tax advice tailored to an individual reader. ACP suggests that readers consult a financial professional, attorney or tax advisory professional about their specific financial, legal or tax situation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss, and different investments and types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. There can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy, including those undertaken or recommended by ACP, will be profitable or equal any historical performance level. The index and sector performance data appearing or referenced above has been compiled by the respective copyright holders, trademark holders, or publication/distribution right owners. Historical performance results for investment indexes or sectors represented are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual portfolio performance. The indexes or sectors represented generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and custodial charges, or the deduction of an investment-management fee, which would decrease historical performance results. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. ACP makes no warranty, express or implied, for any decision taken by any party in reliance upon such index information.

The S&P 500 is the Standard & Poor’s index calculated on a total return basis. Widely regarded as the benchmark gauge of the U.S. equities market, this index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. Although the S&P 500 focuses on the large-cap segment of the market, with over 80% coverage of U.S. equities, it also serves as a proxy for the total market. The Dow Jones is a price-weighted market index that tracks 30 large, blue-chip companies. The NASDAQ is the second-largest stock and securities exchange and attracts more technology-focused or growth-oriented companies. The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap stock market index that makes up the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 1000 Index is a subset of the larger Russell 3000 Index and represents the 1,000 top companies by market capitalization. Bond Aggregate is represented by the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF.

All “expectations, forecasts, consensus, or estimates” are based on Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.

Additional information about ACP, including its Form ADV Part 2A describing its services, fees, and applicable conflicts of interest and its Form CRS is available upon request and at https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/146597. For current ACP clients, please advise us promptly in writing, if there are ever any changes in your financial situation or investment objectives, if you wish to impose any reasonable restrictions to our management of your account, or if you have not been receiving at least quarterly account statements from your account custodian.

This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm.