Broker Check
Weekly Update: Is the Stock Market Overvalued?

Weekly Update: Is the Stock Market Overvalued?

September 29, 2025
Weekly Market Update
September 29, 2025

Outlook

The price-to-earnings multiple (P/E ratio) for the U.S. stock market as represented by the S&P 500 stands at 22.5x.1 By historical standards, this means the stock market is expensive. Since the early 1980s, it has only had a higher P/E ratio in the period leading up to the dotcom bubble (late 1990s) and briefly following the post-pandemic rally. When stock market valuations are higher than average, it generally implies investors believe future earnings growth will also be higher than average. Since 1990, S&P 500 companies have grown earnings by a compounded annual growth rate of 8.0%.2 Since expected earnings growth currently stands at 13.8% for 20263 and more than 10% for the next 5 years,4 expected earnings growth is indeed higher than average. Given our positive view of the economy, we are currently comfortable with the higher-than-average market valuations. However, this view could change if we begin to see overall risks to economic or earnings growth rise to uncomfortable levels.

. . .

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year in August. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% month-over-month and 2.9% compared to a year ago.5 Both readings came in broadly in line with expectations but remained above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. While inflation has moderated from prior highs, the data indicates that pricing pressures persist.


The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its estimate for second quarter real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth upward to 3.8% annualized. This was up from the initial estimate of 3.3%.6 The upward revision reflects wider contribution from consumer spending and a notable decline in imports, and upward adjustments to business investment and inventory accumulation.


The September Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined slightly to 52, down from 53 in August, which marked a more than three-year high.7 The PMI, a composite measure of activity across the manufacturing and services sectors, continues to signal expansion (readings greater than 50), but at a slower pace compared to the previous month.

[1]https://yardeni.com/charts/stock-market-p-e-ratios/

[2]https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings-growth

[3]https://yardeni.com/charts/yri-earnings-outlook/

[4]https://ycharts.com/companies/SPY

[5] Personal Income and Outlays, August 2025 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

[6] Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, Corporate Profits (Revised), and Annual Update | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

[7] United States Manufacturing PMI

Upcoming Reports

Monday: U.S. President Trump Speaks, Pending Home Sales 

Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings, CB Consumer Confidence 

Wednesday: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Prices 

Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims

Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices

Market Performance Stats

Aviance Capital Partnersis a Naples, FL-based registered investment advisor with advisors in Naples and Orlando. We provide professional wealth management,financial planning, and investment strategiessince 2009. Our financial advisors are fiduciaries, offering services such as retirement income planning, tax-efficient investing, and customized portfolio management, all designed to help clients achieve their long-term financial goals.

Whether you're preparing for retirement or seeking a tailored investment management strategy,Aviance’s wealth advisorsin Naples and wealth advisors in Orlando provide financial planning and investment management services to investors in all of Florida and beyond.

Thank you for reading. If you have any questions or concerns, or would like to speak with a member of our team, please click the button below to reach out to us. We would love to hear from you!

Aviance Capital Partners
Aviance Capital Partners
fbintw
Disclosures: Aviance Capital Partners, LLC (“ACP”) is an SEC registered investment adviser located in Naples, Florida. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement by securities regulators and does not imply that ACP has attained a certain level of skill, training, or ability. While information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, ACP does not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. Not all services will be appropriate or necessary for all clients, and the potential value and benefit of the ACP’s services will vary based upon the client’s individual investment, financial, and tax circumstances. The effectiveness and potential success of a tax strategy, investment strategy, and financial plan depends on a variety of factors, including but not limited to the manner and timing of implementation, coordination with the client and the client’s other engaged professionals, and market conditions. This should not be construed as specific investment, financial planning or tax advice tailored to an individual reader. ACP suggests that readers consult a financial professional, attorney or tax advisory professional about their specific financial, legal or tax situation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss, and different investments and types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. There can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy, including those undertaken or recommended by ACP, will be profitable or equal any historical performance level. The index and sector performance data appearing or referenced above has been compiled by the respective copyright holders, trademark holders, or publication/distribution right owners. Historical performance results for investment indexes or sectors represented are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual portfolio performance. The indexes or sectors represented generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and custodial charges, or the deduction of an investment-management fee, which would decrease historical performance results. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. ACP makes no warranty, express or implied, for any decision taken by any party in reliance upon such index information.

The S&P 500 is the Standard & Poor’s index calculated on a total return basis. Widely regarded as the benchmark gauge of the U.S. equities market, this index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. Although the S&P 500 focuses on the large-cap segment of the market, with over 80% coverage of U.S. equities, it also serves as a proxy for the total market. The Dow Jones is a price-weighted market index that tracks 30 large, blue-chip companies. The NASDAQ is the second-largest stock and securities exchange and attracts more technology-focused or growth-oriented companies. The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap stock market index that makes up the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 1000 Index is a subset of the larger Russell 3000 Index and represents the 1,000 top companies by market capitalization. Bond Aggregate is represented by the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF.

All “expectations, forecasts, consensus, or estimates” are based on Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.

Additional information about ACP, including its Form ADV Part 2A describing its services, fees, and applicable conflicts of interest and its Form CRS is available upon request and at https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/146597. For current ACP clients, please advise us promptly in writing, if there are ever any changes in your financial situation or investment objectives, if you wish to impose any reasonable restrictions to our management of your account, or if you have not been receiving at least quarterly account statements from your account custodian.

This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm.