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Things are looking up for the US economy.Later this week we'll get an update on real GDP growth for the 4th quarter of 2020. We estimate that'll be revised up to a 4.3% annual rate of growth from a prior estimate of 4.0%.Meanwhile,...

The budget deficit for fiscal year 2020, which ended 9/30/2020, was $3.1 trillion, the highest ever on record in dollar terms, and the highest relative to GDP since World War II. This year the deficit will be even larger.Before the...

Give Thanks! The US economy continues to heal. Payrolls keep growing, unemployment claims - though still elevated - are shrinking, key measures of the manufacturing and service sectors remain well into positive territory, and, as this...

To reiterate, this Thursday morning we expect the government to report a huge, and virtually unprecedented, surge of a 33.4% annualized growth rate in real GDP growth for the third quarter. There are still a few monthly reports due...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click COVID-19...

Thursday's initial report on real GDP growth in the second quarter is going to break records, and not in a good way. Right now, it looks like the US economy shrank at a 35% annual rate in Q2. To put that in perspective, the worst...

The narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click COVID-19...

A resurgence of new Coronavirus cases around the country has created uncertainty for investors. Stock markets fell last week, not because of the virus, but because investors fear another round of economy-killing, government-mandated...

Turning off the global economic light-switch, and then turning it partially back on, has sent shockwaves through economic data that, while anticipated, have been jaw-dropping in both directions.For example, US retail sales plunged a...

The one key takeaway from last week's Fed meeting is that monetary policymakers are set to keep short-term interest rates near zero for as far as the eye can see. Not forever, but at least until 2023. Keep this in mind in the week...

A full recovery from the COVID-19/Shutdown Crisis is going to take a long time. We don't anticipate reaching a new peak for real GDP until the end of 2021; we don't anticipate a 4% unemployment rate until 2024.However, there is a...

When the employment report for April is released this Friday, the economic damage from the deepest of the Coronavirus shutdowns will become clear. We estimate that nonfarm payrolls will be down roughly 22 million versus March, and the...

Doctors think differently than economists. They put patients with a potential for brain damage in an artificial coma to stop swelling, and when it stops, they bring them out. This fits with the oath all doctors take, which states...

Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist with First Trust, who is one of CAFG's investment partners, has put together a video which I feel puts perspective on The Coronavirus Contraction. We will continue to share information from our best...

Back in July 2008, then-Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said he wanted a "bazooka" to deal with financial threats to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Paulson wanted Congress to give him an unlimited credit line for these enterprises. This...

Less than a month ago markets were at a record high, as healthy data on the US economy signaled continued growth on the horizon. Then, as Coronavirus made its way to continental Europe and the United States, markets went into a...

No one knows with any real certainty how much, or for how long, the Coronavirus will impact the US economy. What we do know is that it will have an impact. And, after data releases of recent weeks, we also know that the US economy was...

Monday, fear over the Coronavirus finally gripped investors, as both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index fell over 3% - the largest daily declines in two years. These drops wiped out all the gains for the year....

The longest economic recovery on record continues, with January being the 128th consecutive month of growth. The first seven years, from mid-2009 through 2016 saw average real GDP growth of 2.2%. Since the start of 2017, US real GDP...

Two award-winning firms come together

Tom Chernesky, CFP

Monday, November 25, 2019

As you may have heard in the news, Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade have reached an agreement for Schwab to acquire TD Ameritrade. The combined company will retain the Schwab name, and will reflect the best that each legacy firm has...

One of our favorite economic parables is the Fish Story, from Paul Zane Pilzer's 1990 book, "Unlimited Wealth." It is an excellent tool for thinking about wealth creation, inequality and redistribution.Imagine 10 people live on an...

CAFG Welcomes Taiber Kosmala to our Team

Tom Chernesky, CFP

Friday, November 8, 2019

I am please to welcome Taiber Kosmala & Associates (TKA) to our CAFG Wealth Management resource team. TKA is an independent investment consulting firm. They provide institutional and wealth management clients such as CAFG with unbiased...

Since the earliest days of the current economic expansion, there have been naysayers asserting the US was on the brink of another recession. Remember all the fear about another wave of home foreclosures, or a disaster in commercial...

Trade disputes have been an ongoing soap opera since President Trump took office. From steel tariffs to trade skirmishes with China, Japan, Canada, Mexico, South Korea, and the European Union, among others, it's been hard to keep...

In spite of all the fear-mongering about a recession, Friday's employment report clearly showed we are not in an economic downturn. The best news in the report was that the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest most Americans have...

Never underestimate the ability of politicians to mess up a good thing. They're certainly trying in Washington, D.C. Unfortunately, many people are concerned about the wrong thing. Nice even numbers fascinate people, and through the...

We've all heard of the Rorschach test - you know, the one where you look at an ink blot and say what you see. The theory is that it's a tunnel into someone's subconscious thoughts or desires. If you're obsessed with hockey you might...

The threat of a recession is on the minds of investors. Some traditional measures of the yield curve are inverted and, in the past, those have preceded recessions. The link between an inverted yield curve and a recession has so...

More than five years ago the European Central Bank adopted negative interest rates as a policy tool to address economic weakness in the Eurozone. Starting at -0.1%, eventually the target short-term rate fell to -0.4%.In Europe, as in...

Wall That Heals

Tom Chernesky, CFP

Monday, July 1, 2019

As we near this 4th of July holiday, I wanted to share a video that I found inspirational. It shows one of the many traveling walls that visit local communities throughout the country as a memorial to Vietnam veterans. The wall serves...

At the Friday close the market consensus was that the Federal Reserve would cut short-term interest rates by 50 - 75 basis points in 2019, with another 25 basis point cut in 2020. We think this is nuts.The US economy doesn't need rate...

Since hitting new all-time highs two weeks ago, the S&P 500 has fallen about 2.2% as trade negotiations with China hit a snag. Last week, the US announced new tariffs on Chinese imports. This morning, China announced new tariffs on...

If you take a long hike up a mountain, there's plenty to appreciate along the way. But, sometimes, you just have to stop and enjoy the view. With that in mind, let's forget about the April employment report – which saw a...

Less than two months ago, conventional wisdom thought the US economy was in real trouble. The consensus expected real GDP would barely grow, if at all, in the first quarter of 2019. Many were in a tizzy about the "second derivative,"...

What a difference a month makes. Last month many economists had pushed down their estimates for first quarter economic growth to near zero. The Atlanta Fed's "GDP Now" model was projecting real GDP growth at a 0.2% annual rate in Q1,...

It's March 8, 2009. The market's down 56% from its all-time high, unemployment is over 8% and hurtling toward 10%, it's just been reported that real GDP dropped at a 6.2% annual rate in Q4 of 2008, and it feels like the world is coming...

We've written about it over and over, and while many advisors seem to understand, the media, politicians, and many analysts don't...or won't. So, we thought we'd try again to explain why so many people don't understand the nearly...

For the more than three decades we have been involved in analysis of the economy, one nagging constant has been pessimistic prognostications over the U.S. debt. Now once again, debt is the news de jour. Consumer, business, and...

Talk about destroying a narrative. On Friday, the Labor Department reported 312,000 new jobs in December, with an additional 58,000 from upward revisions to prior months. Recession talk got crushed. The Pouting Pundits of Pessimism...

The Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke tells us that Mary and Joseph traveled to Bethlehem because Caesar Augustus decreed a census should be taken. Mary...

Last Friday, the 10-year Treasury Note closed at a yield of 2.85%. That's up from 2.41% at the end of 2017, but down from the peak of 3.24% on November 8th, and well below where fundamentals suggest yields should be. In the last two...

It's that time of the year again. Holiday sales data show surging online sales while foot traffic at brick and mortar stores remains tepid. If you have a sense of déjà vu, it's because you heard the same stories last year...

Politics and economics are interwoven. Government grants licenses, enforces contracts and the rule of law, provides fire and police protection, a national defense, and can call on resources to recover from crisis. Without these...

Brian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date: 11/8/2018 No fireworks in today's FOMC statement, as Chairman Powell and company held rates steady while reinforcing their outlook. Unemployment remains low,...

The conventional wisdom is that the stock market rally is over. In the video below, Brian Wesbury - Chief Economist with First Trust, explains why he feels stocks are still cheap.

Not long ago, many investors were kicking themselves for not investing more when the stock market was cheaper. But when stocks fall, like they did last week, many investors have a hard time buying for fear stocks may go lower still....